Backcasting and Forecasting
Backcasting is a particular form of scenario building, where the scenarios are chosen to reflect desirable visions of development and policy packages are constructed to be consistent with these images of the future.
There are fundamental differences between forecasting and backcasting since the latter improves the ability to identify trend-breaches, to generate more creative policy options and to include a larger number of policy considerations.
| FORECASTING | BACKCASTING |
|
Focus on quantified variables More emphasis on details Results determined by the current situation From past to present and slightly to future Deterministic analysis Closed future Statistical econometric tests From simple to complex From quantitative to qualitative Re-active problem solving Implicit assumptions and prejudices Limited set of options Modeloriented mind based on presumed certainty |
Focus on qualitative picture More emphasis on trend breaches Results determined by future images From future to present Creative thinking Open future Plausible thinking From complex to simple From qualitative to quantitative Pro-active problem solving Explicit assumptions without prejudices Open range of options Ecological mind capable to deal with uncertainty |
| Adapted from Rienstra, 1998 | |